Peligrosidad y exposición a los ciclones tropicales en ciudades del Golfo de México: El caso de Tampico

Abstract

This research is a contribution to the discussion of natural hazards in urban areas in the context of Climate Change. The study analyzes the dangerousness and exposure by tropical cycl ones in th e metropolitan area of Tampico, which historically has suffered catastrophic flooding. The methodology uses a Geographic Information System for de cartographic integration of the climate, hydrometeorological y geomorphological data, and to determine the space-time frequency and distribution of the extraordinary events associated to the city floods danger. As a result, a valuable mapping of natural hazards associated with the impact of tropical cyclones and extreme rainfall was achieved, which is necessary for future risk management and urban planning of cities in the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast warned of an increased risk of flooding in the study area, associated with more extreme hydrometeorological phenomena, possibly linked to global climate change and, above all, the growth of urban areas at risk. In the 21^st century, the impact high-intensity tropical cyclones (categories IV and V) in the region are expected. The consequences can be catastrophic for the metropolitan area and its population in a context of lack of planning and prevention.