Riesgo de tsunami en caleta Tubul, Región del Biobío: escenarios extremos y transformaciones territoriales posterremoto

Abstract

The risk of tsunami inundation is analyzed for an extreme event in the town of Tubul (37°S), Bio-Bio Region. Three scenarios were identified for risk assessment, in all of which numerical simulation was applied. Two of the three scenarios were local tsunamis, the events of 1835 and 2010, and the event of 1877 was included to determine the effects of a far field tsunami. The tsunami of 1835 was determined as an extreme event, which gave inundation heights of 10m and run-up of 10m. Vulnerability was analyzed from physical, socioeconomic and educational points of views. Two levels of vulnerability were defined, namely medium and high. These levels were selected based on the poor housing materials, the vulnerable socioeconomic profiles of the population, low educational levels and the population's reactions to these tsunami events. The results show that natural risk is obtained at the high level in the whole town. These results were also compared with the current Reconstruction Plan